This situational report provides an overview of CDR-derived displacement and population movements in sections of Haiti identified by IOM-DTM to have been affected by the floods. The report highlights areas where subscribers of Digicel Haiti have been displaced to, from and within and provides an estimate of the number of newly and remaining displaced subscribers in communal sections of interest. The estimates shown are our best current assessment of movements. However, there are a number of uncertainties. The information should be interpreted together with other available evidence.
In the week of June 5 to 11, an estimated 3,000 subscribers were newly displaced from 10e Section Fond d'Oie (HT0121-10), with a few hundred within the same section. Furthermore, 1,500 individuals were newly displaced to 4e Section Fond de Boudin (HT0121-04), along with additional displacements of 700 in 1re Section Dessources (HT0121-01), 650 in 2e Section Petite Rivière (HT0121-02), 600 in 3e Section Grande Rivière (HT0121-03), and 500 in 10e Section Fond d'Oie (HT0121-10). As of June 11 significant numbers of subscribers likely remain displaced in four administrative sections of Leogane: 1,900 in 4e Section Fond de Boudin (HT0121-04), 1,000 in 1re Section Dessources (HT0121-01), 700 in 3e Section Grande Rivière (HT0121-03), and 650 in 10e Section Fond d'Oie (HT0121-10).
Large displacements, estimated from abnormal movements, have been observed since the end of May or early June in 3e Section Aubert (HT0911-03) and 4e Section Mahotière (HT0911-04). As a result, an estimated 500 subscribers remain displaced in each of these two communal sections. While additional possibly displaced subscribers are observed in the region, most of them are likely related to earlier displacements (or other abnormal movements) occurring before June, particularly in the areas of 1re Section Plate Forme (HT0933-01), 2e Section Mare-Rouge (HT0931-02), and 5e Section Dessources (HT0934-05).
In recent weeks, significant abnormal movements of subscribers have been observed in, out of, and within 1re Section Turgeau (HT0111-01). These movements include over 2,000 excess arrivals in the week ending 04 June and 1,800 excess departures in the following week (ending June 11). Approximately 500 subscribers possibly remain displaced in this communal section. The cause of these movements, whether related to floods or other events in Port-au-Prince, remains unclear. However, adjacent 2e Section Morne l'Hopital (HT0111-02) does not exhibit similar large changes, with only around 100 excess arrivals in the week ending 04 June.
Around 200 newly displaced subscribers are estimated to be in 6e Section Trou Canari (HT0122-06) as of the week ending 11 June. Additionally, another 200 subscribers arrived earlier in the week ending 04 June and may be located in 1re Section Bino (HT0122-01). Larger displacements are however observed out of the region: a significant abnormal number of departures (over 2,000) have been observed from 2e Section Delatre (HT0122-02) in the week ending 11 June. It is likely that most of these subscribers have left the communal section rather than being displaced within, possibly a few to the communal section of Trou Canari likely beyond Petit-Goave given the low arrivals and excess residents in other Petit-Goave sections.
Understanding the figures & report
Figures provided in this report may be conservative estimates because:
- They are based on the analysis of movements of Digicel SIM cards only, not of the whole population: for reference, in 2018, in Port-au-Prince, only 76% of the adult population owned a phone (source: DHS Haiti 2016/2017) and the latest public figures (2016) on Digicel market shares nationally are 74% (CONATEL, 2016);
- Only the subset of Digicel SIM cards with sufficient activity for our analyses are included.
Therefore, the figures reported here are likely to be lower-bound estimates. However, they may also sometimes overestimate displacements. Displacements are estimated from assessing how abnormal the number of movements and residents are, compared to usual numbers and usual variations. However, such abnormal numbers may also arise from malfunctions or artefacts of mobile communications. While we attempt to remove such artefacts, some may remain.
To enhance clarity and consistency, the report will use the term "newly displaced" to describe the excess departures and arrivals without specifying whether they occurred to or within the region. The term "remaining displaced" will be used to refer to the excess residents, representing individuals who continue to be displaced within the region.