This report aims to inform prioritisation of surveillance activities for the 2026 Ituri Ebola outbreak by analysing population movements away from the main outbreak areas.
You can access the full report on the link below.
Executive Summary
This rapid release maps population movements from three health zones in Kisangani (Tshopo Province) using anonymised mobile operator data. Top recipient zones are ranked in Table 1 and mapped in Figure 2.
Our previous report (29 Jun 2026) highlighted Kisangani as a city with no confirmed cases but at relatively high risk. Given Kisangani's importance as a mobility hub in DRC it is of particular importance for the outbreak. Shortly after our report was released the first case was registered in Kisangani and, as of 13 July, there are now 4 confirmed cases in Tshopo province.
This rapid report uses mobility data from the follow-up period ending 8 June, prior to the first confirmed cases in Tshopo. Mobility patterns are generally stable between months and these results are therefore expected to be representative of more recent movement patterns.
This report highlights the high connectivity of Kisangani; especially to Kinshasa and to other population areas along the Congo river, as well as other provinces in the North and North-East of DRC (Ituri, Maniema, Nord-Kivu, Bas-Uele, Haut-Uele). The analysis also indicates notable connectivity with selected population centres in the South of DRC, in particular Lubumbashi, Haut-Katanga. Overall connection to the South is less pronounced.
The high mobility visible on the Congo river and ports along the river should be considered in surveillance, especially if the outbreak in Kisangani grows. This includes settlements bordering the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) along the Congo river which may carry a risk of cross-border spread of the outbreak. In relation to movement towards borders we also note Bondo HZ in Bas-Uele ranked as #35, which has border crossings into the Central African Republic.
Excluding provinces with confirmed cases, health zones in Maniema (Lubutu, #7), Mongala (Yamaluka, #11), Bas- Uele (Buta, #12), and Kinshasa (Gombe, #16) are in the top 20 most connected to Kisangani and should also be considered for prioritisation. Of the top 50 health zones identified in this report, 15 are in Kinshasa province, further emphasising the risk of spread to the most populous city and province.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank Vodacom Foundation and Vodacom Congo (DRC) for providing us with pseudonymised call detail records, which has enabled us to produce the estimates presented in this report of the 2026 DRC Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak.
This work was funded by the King Baudouin Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. The underlying DRC programme of work was established with funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN VODACOM CONGO AND FLOWMINDER
Since 2018, Vodacom Congo and the Flowminder Foundation have been collaborating to put anonymised mobile data at the service of development and humanitarian action in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This partnership combines operator metadata (CDRs) provided by Vodacom Congo with Flowminder's analytical expertise in big data, in strict compliance with subscriber privacy. Together, the two organisations have produced mobility indicators to support the government's response to COVID-19, estimate population displacement following the eruption of Mount Nyiragongo in 2021, and strengthen routine immunisation planning for the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). This collaboration illustrates how the Congolese private sector, national health authorities, and technical partners can combine their strengths to produce timely, evidence-based insights for the benefit of the people of the DRC. The analyses are carried out on de-identified mobile data. No individual-level data leaves Vodacom’s secure premise.