Population movements from Bunia, Mongbwalu and Rwampara based on privacy-secure analysis of mobile operator data from Vodacom Congo (04 June 2026)

1. Areas with confirmed cases since the last report are added. These conform to the predictions in the first report, strengthening the case for using the ranking table provided as an important component in prioritisation.
2. Maps and interpretations have been improved.

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Executive Summary

Since the publication of the first version of this report (28 May), a number of health zones which then had no confirmed cases, but were listed in the report as at very high risk, now have confirmed cases. This strengthens the argument for prioritising areas high on the list (Table 1 and Annex A) for surveillance activities. Among the top ten recipient health zones, only two have not yet had confirmed cases as of 1 June (Tchomia, ranked 6th, and Drodro, 9th, both in Ituri), and among the top twenty health zones only six have yet to confirm cases.

Executive summary — 28 May

This report uses anonymised mobile operator data from Vodacom Congo (DRC) to map population movements out of the three health zones — Bunia, Mongbwalu and Rwampara — that are suspected to be at the origin of the 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak and account for the vast majority of confirmed and suspected cases in DRC. The aim of the study is to identify which areas across the country face the greatest risk of importation and to inform decision making on where surveillance outside the three main affected health zones should be prioritised.

An anonymised study cohort of subscribers present in the three origin health zones during the period 3–23 April 2026 was followed between 24 April and 24 May 2026. Their subsequent movements provide a very recent estimate of how the population in the three main outbreak areas has spread across DRC.

The largest travel flows remain inside Ituri, with the top five recipient health zones being Lita, Nizi, Bambu, Kilo and Nyankunde. Lita alone has received 22% of the studied cohort, orders of magnitude more than other zones in the province. This points to very large differences in importation risk even within Ituri. Outside Ituri, there are clear flows south to Beni, Katwa, Butembo and Oicha in North Kivu (~1% of the cohort), to Watsa in Haut-Uele (0.7%), Makiso Kisangani in Tshopo (0.35%), and smaller but notable flows to Kinshasa (Nsele and Gombe), Sud-Kivu, Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, Equateur, Kasaï Central and Kongo Central, as well as along the Congo River corridor and the Kinshasa–Kikwit–Kananga axis.

Mobility patterns align with the observed case distribution: three of the top five recipient zones and eight out of the ten health zones with confirmed cases outside the three main affected health zones fall within the top 30 destinations. Four important exceptions stand out. Lita, the largest recipient, has no confirmed or suspected cases to date. This warrants a review of surveillance quality in this health zone. Bambu, the third largest recipient, has no confirmed case, but does have both suspected cases and suspected deaths. Conversely, confirmed cases in Goma and Miti Murhesa sit well outside the top 30 (ranks 45 and 127 respectively), a reminder that lower-ranked zones cannot be discounted.

We recommend that highly ranked health zones which are not seen as currently affected be given particular attention in surveillance planning. Important caveats apply: mobility is a key but not the sole predictor of spread (contact patterns ultimately determine transmission), and the data reflect Vodacom subscribers only, though Vodacom is the market leader in Ituri. Further analyses covering additional origin areas, individual health-zone breakdowns, and extended time periods are planned.

Click here to read the report