Senior Spatial Statistician: Population and Mobility Modelling

About Us

Flowminder is a non-profit foundation. We enable decision makers to access the data they need to transform the lives of vulnerable people, at scale.

We analyse pseudonymised mobile operator data, satellite imagery and household survey data to measure where people are and how they move. Flowminder researchers were the first to use mobile operator data to track population movements after a large-scale disaster and during a major infectious disease outbreak, following the 2010 Haiti earthquake and cholera outbreak. We work with national statistics offices, health ministries and disaster management agencies in low- and middle-income countries, alongside UN agencies, the World Bank and development banks.

We are a small team, based mainly in Southampton and Stockholm, working in countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Ghana and Pakistan. Our working language is English, but much of our work with partners is in French.

The role

Flowminder produces privacy-safe, aggregated population and mobility statistics from mobile network operator (MNO) data for governments, UN agencies and humanitarian partners in low- and middle-income countries. The mobile phone data are anonymised and processed inside the operator's secure environment, and no individual-level data is shared. We are looking for a spatial statistician to work on the next generation of these estimates based on projects in collaboration with the Gates Foundation and Google.

The post holder will work on two areas in collaboration with the team:

• Modelled estimates (within radio coverage): downscale MNO-derived mobility and population estimates to high spatial resolution, with quantified uncertainty, by combining them with census, household survey, satellite, building-footprint and other spatial data sets.
• Modelled estimates (outside radio coverage): build statistical models that predict population presence and movement in areas the network does not reach, so estimates cover whole countries rather than only covered areas.

This is a highly specialised technical role. Most of the postholder's time goes on developing, validating and applying statistical methods, and they will be our reference point for spatial population modelling.

If you also have experience leading projects independently, comparable to a World Bank Task Team Leader, we are interested. We are open to discussing how the role could be extended to include project leadership, with remuneration adjusted accordingly.

The immediate applications are our work with Google on polio eradication and vaccination planning in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where reaching mobile and under-served populations depends on knowing where people are and how they move.

Key responsibilities

Methods and analysis (core of the role)

• Develop spatial and spatio-temporal models (for example Bayesian models, INLA/SPDE, Stan, small-area estimation) to downscale aggregated MNO mobility and population estimates to high resolution, with full uncertainty quantification.
• Build models that predict population presence and movement outside network coverage, and in low penetration areas using covariates such as settlement and building footprints, roads, terrain, land cover and survey data.
• Integrate geo-referenced household survey data (DHS, MICS, vaccination coverage surveys), census and gridded population products, handling consideration of survey designs, sampling weights and displaced GPS coordinates correctly.
• Write reproducible, documented code in Python and or R that our engineering team can put into production.
• Ensure integration of new methods and estimates into a framework that is consistent across Flowminder’s mobility statistics and research projects.

Technical leadership and quality

• Make sure what we deliver is methodologically sound, on time and useful to the people who will make decisions with it.
• Turn methodological requirements into clear analysis plans and specifications that analysts and data engineers can implement.
• Review analysts' work and mentor them in spatial and statistical methods.
• Follow Flowminder's data-protection and partner-NDA rules: work only with aggregated, group-level outputs outside secure MNO environments.

Partnerships, funding and communication

• Contribute the methods sections of proposals and funding applications, and help build new partnerships.
• Present methods and results to technical and non-technical audiences, and lead peer-reviewed publications.
• Translate model outputs into products for polio and routine-immunisation planning with the Gates Foundation, the Ministry of Health in DRC and other partners.
• Build the capacity of national counterparts through training and joint work.

For suitable candidate: Project leadership

For a candidate with the experience, the role can grow to include:

• Leading projects from start to finish: scoping, work plans, budgets, timelines, risk management and delivery to clients.
• Acting as the main contact for clients and partners on a project.
• Line-managing a team of analysts: setting priorities and supporting their professional development.
• Acting as the technical counterpart for clients and partners, including national statistics offices, ministries, UN agencies and development banks.

Other organisations might call this role: Senior Geospatial Data Scientist; Senior Spatial Data Scientist; Senior Research Scientist (Spatial Statistics).

About You

You must already have the right to work in the country you will be based in (UK or Sweden). We are unable to offer visa sponsorship.

Essential requirements

• PhD in statistics, geography, demography or a related field, with a thesis or research work applying spatial statistics, ideally to population data.
• Advanced spatial statistics, including Bayesian hierarchical and geostatistical models (for example INLA/SPDE, Stan, small-area estimation) and uncertainty quantification.
• Experience with using household survey data (DHS, MICS, coverage surveys or similar) or similar data in low- and middle-income countries.
• Excellent written and spoken English, and the ability to explain statistical choices to non-specialists.

Highly desirable

• Experience working with several types of population data, such as, household survey data, high-resolution census data, bednet, vaccination or other health programme data, or other sparse or uncertain data types.
• Specific experience developing methods for estimating population stocks or flows, migration or displacement.
• Strong R and/or Python skills and reproducible workflows; Google Earth Engine or satellite-derived data such as building footprints.

Desirable

• Substantial experience working on projects in low- and middle-income countries, ideally with national statistics offices, ministries or humanitarian agencies.
• Experience combining surveys with mobile phone, satellite or other non-traditional data.
• Survey sampling design or vaccination coverage modelling.
• Peer-reviewed publications in spatial statistics, survey methods, demography or mobility.
• Knowledge of data protection and research ethics: GDPR, informed consent, ethics review, and working under data-sharing agreements with private partners.
• Experience training and mentoring national counterparts.
• Experience in rapid-response or humanitarian settings, such as displacement monitoring or epidemic response.
• Professional French.

Additional experience we would welcome

If you have this experience we are open to discussing an extended role and adjusted remuneration:

• Senior experience leading multi-stakeholder projects independently, owning scope, budget, timelines, client relations and delivery.
• Experience line-managing analysts or researchers.
• A track record of writing successful proposals to donors such as the World Bank, FCDO, the Gates Foundation or similar.