By Jane P Messina, Moritz UG Kraemer, Oliver J Brady, David M Pigott, Freya M Shearer, Daniel J Weiss, Nick Golding, Corrine W Ruktanonchai, Peter W Gething, Emily Cohn, John S Brownstein, Kamran Khan, Andrew J Tatem, Thomas Jaenisch, Christopher JL Murray, Fatima Marinho, Thomas W Scott, and Simon I Hay.
Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.